Over the weekend, we saw that the breakdown of the $18,000 - 20,000 zone looked and felt like a capitulation of the entire market, which reset everyone who wanted to “pick up” BTC near the round $20,000 level. Review and forecast from traders of the KickEX exchange.
Bitcoin
Over the weekend, we saw that the breakout of the $18,000-20,000 zone looked and felt like a capitulation of the entire market, which dumped everyone who wanted to "pick up" BTC around the $20,000 level.
The market has since shown a strong recovery in line with the strengthening of equity futures after the long weekend in the US. While there may not be an ultimate low, there is no real sign yet that the Fed could make a significant policy change before the end of this year - after inflation has cooled and the US recession has been completely ignored by markets.
Realized volatility remained insanely high as it was thought to have come off following the massive liquidation over the weekend. This creates a huge implied realized gap and shows how difficult it was to use a short scale, even though short always worked well. Markets expect some stabilization in the future.
You can also notice that the amount of Bitcoin in exchange wallets is currently lower than in November 2018, and Tether (USDT) continues to grow, which tells us about a possible purchase in the future.
Based on this, we can consider several scenarios for the development of the situation for the next week:
Scenario 1:an upward movement to the level of $26,800;
Scenario 2:a continuation of the bear market and an approach to level of $17,600, and the worst-case scenario will send us to the level of $16,200.
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