KickEX traders analyzed the main events of the past week on the cryptocurrency market and gave a forecast for the BTC exchange rate for the new period.
The main event of the week was the Federal Reserve's announcement of the size of the interest rate increase. Many expected the Fed to raise it by 1%, as rising inflation rates require more aggressive action. However, a step of 0.75% suggests that inflation is assessed as the lesser of all possible evils. Moreover, in November the Fed will stop raising rates, and in 2023 will return to the QE program (purchasing assets and expanding its balance sheet). Such a soft position by the regulator is good news for risky assets.
If containment measures are insufficient, inflation will go galloping and the risk of recession will increase. The control point will be the release of inflation statistics for July-August. Joe Biden does not call two consecutive declines in quarterly GDP a sign of a recession, but uses an academic definition for this. (who will say before the elections that we are already in a recession).
If you look at the Bitcoin chart, then, despite the bad macro statistics, we have good signs of growth:
Next week we predict the following scenarios for the development of events.
Scenario 1: movement to the levels of 25,000 and 29,000;
Scenario 2: correction to 22,500 and subsequent movement to 25,000.
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