6 million bitcoins lost forever

The number of BTC coins in circulation has already decreased by 28.5%, at today’s exchange rate this is almost 40 billion dollars, which are lost forever.

Prominent investors and analysts in the cryptocurrency sector have consistently stated that a Bitcoin price of up to $100,000 or higher is possible because only 21 million BTC could ever exist. However, this figure has already decreased to an actual 15 million BTC. Jameson Lopp, former chief engineer of BitGo e-wallets and current engineer of the CasaHODL project, estimates that 6 million bitcoins are lost beyond repair. This is the number of BTC that is not tracked on the Bitcoin network and remains inaccessible. 

According to experts, 4 million BTC are lost forever due to forgotten passwords, and about 2 million are stolen from user accounts. It is possible to restore the original number of bitcoins in circulation through a hard fork, but no one is going to do this, and the total number of coins in circulation has decreased by 28.5% of bitcoins.

For investors, the fixed final number of coins makes them a profitable long-term investment compared to traditional assets such as gold. The fact that there is already less than 75% of Bitcoin in circulation should theoretically increase the value of the cryptocurrency. However, given the rather speculative nature of today's cryptocurrency trading, it is difficult to say whether coins withdrawn from circulation are taken into account in pricing.

Chainalysis economist Kim Grier notes that there is no clear answer as to whether the current BTC exchange rate takes into account the loss of such a significant part of the issued coins. Given the practice of fiat currencies, manipulation of their quantity always affects the foreign exchange markets. On the other hand, today the direct calculation of market capitalization does not take into account coins withdrawn from circulation. If the existing calculation model is changed to take into account the shortage of Bitcoin, the new one could seriously affect the supply and demand market for the cryptocurrency.

The price of Bitcoin is $6.7 thousand and, at the moment, is calculated based on a market turnover of 17.13 million coins. If we take into account the remaining quantity of only 11 million and recalculate the exchange rate, then it should be slightly higher than $10 thousand. However, the amount of currency in circulation is not the only factor influencing pricing, especially since the fact that some coins are out of access has long been known.. 

It is difficult to say unequivocally that the 28.5% of bitcoins withdrawn from circulation are having a serious impact on the BTC exchange rate today.