In an interview with CNBC, the founder of the Huobi exchange said that based on previous market cycles, the next Bitcoin rally should wait about three years.
His analysis is based on the behavior of the first cryptocurrency after halving. Every four years, after another reduction in the block reward, Bitcoin behaves in a similar way. Thus, after the 2016 halving, BTC set its price record by the end of 2017. The May 2020 reduction led to 2021 records. In both cases, after record rallies, the market fell into a prolonged bearish trend. Du Jun suggested that if today’s situation is similar to the previous ones, then the market will not see the next Bitcoin rally before “late 2024 - early 2025” year.”
On the other hand, now there are many more factors influencing price movement, and the situations are not entirely identical.
In the current market cycle, the influence of institutional investors and financial exchange-traded products on market behavior has seriously increased. June admitted that it is difficult to make predictions now:
It is very difficult to accurately predict the repetition of the cyclicity. Many other factors have emerged in the market that determine its movement - for example, geopolitics, including sanctions and war, or the ongoing pandemic.
Cryptocurrency markets have already lost 38% from their November high. If Jun's assumptions are correct, then bearish sentiment will persist for a long time.
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