The clear dynamics of declining bearish positions on the futures market give hope for a new round of the bullish trend.
BTC went through a massive correction last week but was still unable to break out of the sideways range. However, Friday's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report on traders' trades (COTs) showed a clear decline in bearish pressure. Short positions in the Bitcoin futures market fell to a record low, confirming the end of the market's protracted stagnation and the possibility of a reversal to an uptrend.
According to CFTC data, the mood of large traders regarding Bitcoin can now be called the most optimistic since the launch of BTC futures last year. Clear evidence of this is provided by the volume of net short speculative position in futures, which decreased to a record 1,266 contracts. Thus, traders are net short BTC with depleted bearish positions that have driven the BTC price below the psychological support of $6,000 over the past 10 weeks, but have failed to keep it within that range.
There are no positive results yet indicating net long positions (bullish bets), but the break of psychological resistance at $6,800 opens the way to $7,000. Loss of control by the bulls, in the current situation, can be predicted if the price falls below $6,600. In this scenario, the rate will return to the minimum weekly value of $6,230.
Last weekend confirmed the upward trend of BTC predicted in the CFTC report. Bitcoin managed to break through the upper limit of the sideways range at 6777.00 USD and set the first local maximum at 6945.00 USD, breaking through psychological resistance. This gives hope for the strengthening of the bullish trend and the opening of the road to the first top of $7,000.
Despite the confirmation of the conclusions of technical analysis based on the futures market, the opinion of experts and analysts is divided. Some analysts continue to predict a $3,000 bottom, even though the chances of this happening are slim under normal circumstances. Thus, Anthony Pompliano said that a fall to $3,000 is very likely, and it will take up to five years to restore previous positions.
Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Tom Lee is confident that the market will soon rise sharply, which will raise the price of Bitcoin to $60,000 by 2020.
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